11 replies to this topic

[ScReeeeaM]

I have a question on probability that has stumped me so far. Im pretty good when it comes to probabilities, but this one is too complex for me to work it out. any help would be very handy



the problem is this:


I have a pack of 44 cards (not playing cards). Of these 44 cards, 2 represent "Wild" or "Joker" cards, and can take any value. Of the 42 remanining, 1/3 of them have the value 1, another 1/3 has the value 2, and the third 1/3 has value 3.

To summerise:

14 cards represent the value 1
14 cards represent the value 2
14 cards represent the value 3
2 cards represent any value

Given that there is Y number of people playing, where 3<=Y<=6 (sorry for the bad signs, but i cant find the is bigger than or equal to etc sign), ie there is a minimum of 3 players and a maximum of 6 players, and my position in the group of people is X, where 1<=X<=Y (ie i could be first, or last, or inbetween).

Assuming the player in position 1 draws 1 card, and then player in position 2 draws 1 card and so on up to the Y'th player, and this again repeats in a circle, what is the probability that me (position X) having picked up 3 cards, has cards that represent the values 1, 2 and 3


I hope that is understandable

obviously, since there is no current values for X and Y, an exact number cannot be gained, but what im looking for is a forumula in respect to X and Y that would give me the correct probability when i input the values for x and y.

I do not know what the other players pick up...they are not shown, but this is where i am having my biggest troubles trying to fathom it out. Since i dont know what th ey have picked up, does it really change the odds of what i pick up...despite the fact that what they do pick up does actually alter the chances of me picking up a certain card.

Assuming that the wild cards were not being used, this would be a simple problem in my mind, where x and y wouldnt be important (if i am correct), but since they are being used, the chances of me picking up a wildcard changes everytime someone else draws a card.

As you can see, my brain is messed up and i would appreciate help or an answer because this has been bugging me for eternity

[ScReeeeaM]

sorry i forgot to add something


When i pick up a card i do know what i picked up, but i dont knwo what the other people picked up, maybe this makes it easier to work out, or makes no difference i dont know but i thought id give you the full info

[Discogirl17]

Wo. Thats a hard question. Where did u get it??? Dont worry I'll print it off and try and work it out.

[ScReeeeaM]

thx, i was just playing a game with a few friends over a lot of beer, and someone just made me wonder what the odds of something happening were, i said "yeah sure i can work that out" but i hit immediate problems :|

the problem has been bugging me ever since


thx for trying to help and good luck

[Discogirl17]

Can I ask something? When u say a lot of beer...
It makes me wonder. R u playing a prank. Or is whoever asked u this just having a laugh. Or are you being serious

[ScReeeeaM]

k no
this isnt a prank and im not being stupid


the fact there was beer involved doesnt change the problem i have

i think you will find that in life, lots of problems arise when beer is taken in

this is one of them

i REALLY need to find the answer to this puzzle because it is really annoying me. ive tried many things but so far ive hit a blank.

sorry if i gave that impression, i admit its not something i would have thought of had i not been there that night but now it just has to be answered or i will go mad

[Discogirl17]

Ok i'll help you. Might take a while though. My brain is a bit slow.

[AndyW]

I think your question may be a variation on this common probability puzzle:

http://www.comedia.com/hot/monty.html

[Discogirl17]

Mental. I'll check that out. Oh no I sound like a ned.

[Discogirl17]

Nope can't get the answer. Sorry.

[fresh graduate]

don't warry my dear i promise i will tray to help u and if i don't know how to answer it i will ask my doctor

[Discogirl17]

Serious Mr Graduate? R u foreign?